On paper, the replacement strategy sounds straightforward. Spain boasts some of the best solar and wind resources in Europe so we just need to copy and paste those systems. In practice, though, we still need a huge build-up of photovoltaic farms, wind turbines, and pumped hydro facilities to make up for the energy shortfall. In addition, we also require massive energy storage facilities and for this the government has set a goal of twenty gigawatts by 2030. Gas plants will remain on standby as a reserve to keep the lights on during overcast days or windless weeks. If everything goes to plan, the theory goes, Spain can meet its climate targets without nuclear.
The trouble is that reality is often more complicated. The blackout of 28 April 2025 showed just how fragile Spain’s grid can be. Voltage control slipped, reserves were thin, and in less than a minute large parts of Spain and Portugal had no power for an entire day. While renewables were said to not be the cause, the blackout exposed how important stability and reserves are. Unlike Germany, which sits in the middle of a dense European network, and can import power from elsewhere (albeit at premium rates), Spain is effectively an energy island. Its interconnections with France are very limited, so there is no backup to cover a major supply shock or shortfall.
The financial side is just as urgent. Nuclear has provided about a fifth of Spain’s electricity. It has been a reliable reserve, and has done so at very stable costs. Once these reactors shut down, marginal pricing will more often be tied to gas. When the sun fails to shine or the wind slows, gas plants will set the price (and co-incidentally will burn a lot more CO2 than nuclear energy). If the global gas markets tighten, then we are going to feel it in our electricity bills. Wholesale prices are likely to become more volatile, which means households and businesses will need to adapt. The promise of cheaper power may come, but the path to that point looks rather bumpy.
The risks for Spain’s economy.
Spain’s industry depends heavily on affordable electricity. Ceramics in Valencia, chemicals in Tarragona, aluminium smelters and data centres all require reliable power at competitive rates. If prices fluctuate too much, companies may slow investment or even be forced to move production abroad. Germany provides a sobering example here. After shutting its last reactors in 2023, power costs soared, coal plants returned to service (with much chagrin), and many energy intensive firms relocated operations to the United States and Asia where electricity was cheaper. Germany has yet to recover its manufacturing industry, and Spain would be unwise not to learn from that experience.
Opposition to the phase-out has grown. Opponents say that Spain should at least extend the life of some reactors. They point to the low carbon footprint of nuclear, its ability to run at high capacity, and the nearly twenty thousand skilled jobs that depend on the sector. Their argument is not to prevent a renewable solution, but they say it makes more sense to slow the dismantling of the existing fleet at least until renewable replacements are fully operational, and the system is stable.
So what should an individual, family, or small business plan for in the next decade? It’s best to invest in better insulation, efficient appliances, energy usage monitoring, and, if possible, your own energy solution to cushion against price spikes. Households in rural areas may need to think about modest backup systems, like generators, to cover sensitive equipment during outages. Everyone should expect more volatility and therefore plan accordingly.
So where does this leave us?
Yes, Spain’s nuclear phase-out remains official policy. Yes, the first plant is scheduled to close in 2027. Can renewables and storage replace nuclear? Possibly, but only if the ambitious storage targets are achieved and the necessary grid support technologies are implemented in time. Will electricity prices go up? Most analysts believe they will, at least in the medium term. The most important lesson is not to remove a stable source of power before the replacement is ready. Germany learned that lesson the hard way. Spain has now had its own wake-up call with the April blackout. The question is whether policymakers will adjust course before the closures begin, or whether they will hold fast to the calendar, cross their fingers, and hope for the best.
